Critical Thinking: BS Detectors on Stun. How to Detect Illegitimate Biases

Introduction
In this section we are going to start learn how to detect BS.  Lets move beyond the general notion of 'bias' and get more specific about biases and how the affect the strength and validity of arguments.  Recall that one way we can classify biases is according to how much skin the arguer has in the game; that is, the degree to which the arguer stands to gain from his audience accepting his position.  In this respect we can make 3 broad categories of bias: legitimate, illegitimate, and conflict of interest.  By now you should be able to say something about each type.  Moving on...

Confirmation Bias:
Another way to classify bias in an argument is according to how the information is presented.  One of the most familiar biases is confirmation bias.  Confirmation bias is when we only report the "hits" and ignore the "misses"; in other words, we only include information/evidence/reasons in our argument that support our position and we ignore information that disconfirms.  Confirmation bias is often (but not always) unintentional and everyone does it to some degree (except me).

What?  You don't think you do?  Oh, I get it.  You're special.  Ok, smarty pants.  Here's a test.  Lets see how smart you are.  And don't forget you've already been give fair warning of what's going to happen. The smart money says you will still fall into the trap.

Click on this link and do the test before you continue:
http://hosted.xamai.ca/confbias/index.php
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I said do the test first!
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Well?  Vas happened? I'm going to continue with the assumption that you committed the confirmation bias.  Hey, don't feel bad--we're hardwired for it.  Before we move forward and discuss how and why confirmation bias works, let me take you on a philosophical aside.

Aside on Falsificationism
I promised myself I wouldn't do this but it'd be helpful to bring in a little philosophy here.  Please meet my good friend Carl Popper (no relation to the inventor of the popular snack food known as Jalepeno Poppers).

Popper made a very important philosophical observation in regards to how we can test a hypothesis:  he said we cannot test for a hypothesis' truth, rather we can only test for its falsity.  This is called falsificationism.  In other words, there are infinitely many ways to show that a hypothesis is true, but it only requires one to show that it is false.  We should focus on looking to falsify rather than to confirm.

In technical philosophy we refer to an instance of a falsification as a counter example.  A counter example is a case in which all the premises are true but the conclusion is false (more on this later).

For illustrative purposes lets apply this principle to the number-pattern test from the link.  You were given a series of numbers and asked to identify the principle that describes the pattern.  Suppose, (unbeknownst to you) the ordering principle is any 3 numbers in ascending order.  How did you go about trying to discover the ordering principle? You looked at the numbers and like most people thought it was something to do with even numbers evenly spaced.  You looked at the sample pattern and tried to make patterns that conformed to your hypothesis.

For instance, if the initial pattern was 2, 4, 6 you might have thought, "ah ha! the pattern is successive even numbers!"  So, you tested your hypothesis with 8, 10, 12.  The "game" replied, yes, this matches the pattern.  Now you have confirmation of your hypothesis that the pattern is successive even numbers.  Next, you want to further confirm you hypothesis so you guess 20, 22, 24.  Further confirmation again!  Wow! You are definitely right!  Now, you plug you hypothesis (successive even numbers) into the game, but it says you are wrong.  What?  But I just had 2 instances where my hypothesis was confirmed?!

Back to Confirmation Bias
Here's the dealy-yo.  You can confirm your hypothesis until the cows come home.  That is, there are infinitely many ways to confirm the hypothesis.   However, as Popper noted, what you need to do is to ask questions that will falsify possible hypotheses.  So, instead of testing number patterns that confirm what you think the pattern is, you should test number sequences that would prove your hypothesis to be false.  That is, instead of plugging in more instances of successive even numbers you should see how the game responds to different types of sequences like 3, 4, 5 or 12, 4, 78.  If these are accepted too, then you know your (initial) hypothesis is false.

Lets look at this from the point of view of counter examples.  Is it possible that all our number strings {2, 4, 6}, {8, 10, 12}, {20, 22, 24} are true (i.e., conform to the actual principle--ascending order) but our conclusion is false (i.e., the ordering principle is sequential even numbers).  The answer is 'yes', so we have a counter-example.  In other words, it's possible for all the premises to be true (the number strings) yet for our conclusion to be false.  

How do we know our premises can be true and the conclusion false?  Because our selected number stings are also consistent with the actual ordering principle (3 numbers in ascending order).  If this is the case (and it is), all of the premises are true and our conclusion (our hypothesis) is false.  We have a counter example and should therefore reject (or in some cases further test) our hypothesis.

If you test sequences by trying to find counter examples you can eventually arrive at the correct ordering principle, but if you only test hypothesis that further confirm your existing hypothesis, you can never encounter the necessary evidence that leads you to reject it.  If you never reject your incorrect hypothesis, you'll never get to the right one! Ah!  It seems sooooooo simple when you have the answer!

Why do we care about all this as critical thinkers?
When most arguments are presented, they are presented with evidence.  However, (usually) the evidence that is presented is only confirming evidence.  But as we know from the number-pattern example, the evidence can support any number of hypothesis.  To identify the best hypothesis we need to try to disconfirm as many hypotheses as possible.  In other words, we need to look for evidence that can make our hypothesis false.  The hypothesis that stands up best to falsification attempts has the highest (provisional) likelihood of being true.

As critical thinkers, when we evaluate evidence, we should look to see not only if the arguer has made an effort to show why the evidence supports their hypothesis and not another, but also what attempt has been made to prove their own argument false.  We should also be aware of this confirmation bias in our own arguments.

Bonus Round:  Where do we often see confirmation bias?
Conspiracy theories and alt-med are rife with confirmation bias.  Evidence is only used that supports the hypothesis.  Alternative accounts of the results are not considered and there is often no attempt to falsify the pet hypothesis.

Confirmation Bias and the Scientific Method:
We'll discuss the scientific method in more detail later in the course but a couple of notes are relevant for now.  The scientific method endeavors to guard against confirmation bias (although, just as in any human enterprise, it sometimes creeps in).  There are specific procedures and protocols to minimize its effect.  Here are a few:

• When a scientist (in a lab coat) publishes an article, it is made available to a community of peers for criticism.  (Peer review)
• Double blinding
• Control Group
• Incentives for proving competing hypotheses and theories wrong (be famous!)
• Use of statistical methods to evaluate correlation vs causation

Confirmation Bias 2:  Slanting by Omission and Distortion
Slanting by omission and distortion are 2 other species of confirmation bias.  Slanting by omission, as you might have guessed, is when important information is left out of an argument to create a favorable bias.

Perhaps a contemporary example can be found in the gun-rights debate.   We often hear something like "my right to bear arms is in the Constitution."  While this is true, the statement omits the first clause of the Second Amendment which qualifies the second, i.e., that the right to bear arms arises out of the historical need for national self-defense.  The Constitution is mute on the right to bear arms for personal security.  There also the troublesome word "well-regulated".

Omitting these fact slants the bias in favor of an argument for an unregulated right to bear arms based on personal self-defense.  This may or may not be a desirable right to have, but it is an open question as to whether this right is constitutionally grounded.

Another example of slanting by omission might be the popular portrayal by the media of terrorists in the US of being of foreign origins.  Such an argument omits many contemporary acts of domestic terrorism perpetrated by white American males (for example, Ted Kaczynski aka the unibomber and Timothy McVeigh).

Slanting by distortion is when opposing arguments/reasons/evidence are distorted in such as way as to make them seem weaker or less important than they actually are.  Think of slanting by distortion as something like white lies.

For example, famously, when Bill Clinton said "[he] did not have sexual relations with that woman," he was slanting by distortion in the way he deceptively used the term 'sexual relations'.

Summary

• A common type of bias is confirmation bias in which only confirming evidence and reasons are cited, and falsifying evidence is ignored.  
• A good way to test a hypothesis or argument is to ask whether it's possible for all the premises to true and the conclusion to be false; that is, are there counter examples.  Instead of emphasizing confirming evidence, a good argument also tries to show why counter examples fail.  In other words, it shows why, if all the premises are true we must also accept the particular conclusion rather than another one.  
• As critical thinkers assessing other arguments, we should try to come up with counter examples.
• Slanting by omission is when important information (relative to the conclusion) is left out of an argument.
• Slanting by distortion is when opponents arguments/evidence are unfairly trivialized.

Critical Thinking: Biases, Vested Interests, and Conflicts of Interests

Introduction
The previous chapter on arguments focused on how differences in systems of beliefs give rise to arguments.  People with disparate systems of beliefs often hold differing values and beliefs, which in turn influence what they consider to be basic assumptions (to be used in an argument as premises).

It should also be mentioned that sometimes the difference isn't so much that the values are different in an absolute sense, but that they are held to different degrees.  For example, much social psychology has shown that conservatives favour attributing moral status and providing resources to "in group" members, while liberals often concern themselves more with "out groups" (than do conservatives).   This is not to say conservatives don't care about "out groups" or that liberals don't care about "in groups,"; instead, it is a matter of relative value.

For more information on the psychological differences between conservatives, liberals, and libertarians check out this great website: http://www.moralfoundations.org/index.php?t=home

So, why does this all matter to us as critical thinkers?  There are a host of reasons, but here are two important ones:  The first is that understanding the role of systems of belief in an argument can help  make us aware of biases in the premises (both our opponents argument and in our own).  The second is that understanding an opponent's bias can give us hints as to how we might sway the opponent to our own point of view.

Mommy?  What's a Bias?
A bias is an "inclination or prejudice for or against" some fact or point of view.  In arguments, what this means is that we are prone to giving undue favour or neglect to some fact or point of view.  Everybody does this (except me); it's part of being a human being.

There is a wealth of evidence in the psychological "litra-cha" demonstrating that we begin with our position first then collect or reject evidence and reasons to support that pre-existing position.  Our pre-existing position is usually grounded in emotion/preferences rather that "Reason."  The more emotional our investment in an issue, the greater the likelihood that some kind of bias has crept into our supporting arguments--in attributing either undue strength to a supporting assertion or in overlooking or dismissing  contrary reasons or evidence.

Biases:  Too Illegit to Quit?
We've established people (except me) have biases.  Now what?  Do we automatically rejet everybody's arguments 'cuz they're biased?  Nope.

We can make a distinction between legitimate and illegitimate biases.  The distinction will depend mostly on how opposing reasons, evidence, and arguments are portrayed, and if there are any intentional important omissions.  As you might have guessed an illegitimate bias is one in which the arguer poorly or dishonestly represents the aforementioned elements, or if the bias leads to weak logical connections between premises and the conclusion.  Any website or blog with a strong political bias in either direction will provide excellent samples of arguments with illegitimate biases.

A legitimate bias is simply favoring a point of view but not in a way such that the opposing position is misrepresented.  It allows an impartial observer to fairly evaluate the proposed point of view.  For example, I think everyone should be allowed to own an assault riffle bow that fires swords for self-defense.   That's my point of view.

My argument is that they are not prohibited by the Constitution, therefore, they should be legal.  My opponents reply that the 2nd Amendment isn't about arms for personal self-defense but for a well-regulated militia that should be controlled by the Gov't.  They'd also argue that just because a small group of people a few hundred years ago voted on something, doesn't mean that we need to accept it now.  Societies and circumstances change, and the best laws reflect that.  Notice that even though I'm biased toward people owning assault rifle bows that fire swords, I don't distort the opposing arguments.

Vested Interests
A vested interest is when an arguer (or someone paying the arguer) stands to benefit from their point of view being accepted.  When vested interests are involved there's a very high likelihood of illegitimate bias.

For example, when certain industries spend millions of dollars to pay lobbyists and "donate" to politicians, we can be fairly certain that their arguments for special treatment or exemption contain illegitimate biases.

Not all vested interests need be financial.  One might be motivated by the desire for power, fame, revenge, attention, sex, etc.. or to get out of trouble/prove one's innocence.

We should be cautious of dismissing arguments out of hand just because the arguer has a vested interest in the outcome.  That they have a vested interest tells us nothing about the argument's validity which should be evaluated independently   When there is a vested interest, it simply means we should be extra cautious about illegitimate biases (and omissions).

Conflict of Interest
A conflict of interest is a vested interest on steroids; i.e., when vested interests are extreme.  In such cases there is usually an ethical issue involved too, and in professional settings, conflicts of interest have to be disclosed.

For example, in medical research if a university study of a drug is funded by the company that produces the drug, this is a conflict of interests for the researchers.  It must be disclosed at the beginning of any research that is produced.

An important recent example of a conflict of interest in medicine that wasn't disclosed was Andrew Wakefield's anti-vaccine research article in the Lancet.  What he did not disclose in his research was that he had been paid several millions of dollars to do research on vaccines by a company that was developing an alternative to the conventional vaccine.    

There was a clear conflict of interest because he stood to gain so much if his research showed that conventional vaccines are unsafe and that the company that had funded the research was developing an alternative.

In the end, his results were never replicated, his methods shown to be unethical, his data drawn from a statistically insignificant sample size (12 children), and the article was subsequently retracted by the publisher.  However,  because of the fear that came about because of his "research," there was and continues to be tremendous damage to public health.

Summary:  
We all have biases.  What matters is the degree to which they distort the presentation of evidence and reasons in arguments both for and against the arguers position.  Biases are illegitimate when they cause distortion such that arguments cannot be fairly evaluated..